It was either Back to the Future or a clip of Conan and Andy Richter doing “In the Year 2000” to start this blog. This week we are looking at Futures specifically win totals. Win totals are very interesting plays. Books will kill you with juice to get you to bet the other way. It’s a bet that you will follow all season and catch yourself looking ahead several weeks. Plus when you get your teeth kicked in one week, it’s nice to know you got $100 coming in 3 months to help whittle down that -880 Kliff Kingsbury cost you because he is a terrible coach that only has a damn job because he’s good looking. Couldn’t put up 17 at home against Texas? Go to hell Pretty Boy.
Graduating Penn State in 4 years (impressive) with a Business Degree (Top 25 Business school) and a gaudy 3.1 GPA (this is a lie) I learned a few things in Finance, specifically the concept of Value. I use the word a lot to identify plays and futures are no different. With something like regular season win totals value isn’t going to be +350. Rather it is when we find a 10 win team with a total of 8.5. These are intended to be small "fun" bets that you can be winners by November in some cases. Here are a few that I like for this season
Cincinnati Over 7.5 (-180) your book doesn’t want you betting Cinci Over, that much is clear. This is a 9 win team in a terrible conference. Gunner Kiel is a solid QB and returns all his WR’s and 60% of his O-Line. 180 is a heavy lay, but there is a reason for that. This team will win more games than the Bengals
Temple Under 7 (+110) only doing this team because of the location. Temple should have a solid D this year but they just aren’t there offensively. Mix in games with PSU and Notre Dame on top of some parity in the middle of the conference and it could be a tough season.
Baylor Over 10 (-140) The Bears likely lose to TCU. Do they lose two other times? No. Over is the safer bet here. As usual they will score and be scored upon but the only other road block for this team should be at Oklahoma State. This team will win 10 and should be able to grab 11.
Kansas Under 2 (-110) Bill Self isn't coaching so this team is going to Rock Chalk Jayhawk their way to 1 win if they are lucky. South Dakota State (FCS) will likely give this team a tough game…might outright beat them.
Michigan Under 7.5 (+105) Harbaugh is over-valued as the coach of this team by 1.5 wins. He can scream all he wants but this isn’t his recruiting class, the team lacks depth, and they don’t have it easy. I see the Wolverines winning 6 games and struggling on offense all season.
Michigan State Over 9.5 (-165) Sparty has a good squad, they are going to win 10 games. This is the only team that I like to beat Ohio State this year. If they wore gold and blue, their win total would be 10.5 and -165
Penn State Over 8 (-165) James Franklin can fire up the team and fan base but needs to get stronger on game day. Offensive line should be a strength this year and this is Hack’s shot to get his stock up to the first round. Plus its my Alma Mater. Pitt sucks
Western Kentucky Over 7.5 (-160) get ready to see a lot of the Hilltoppers in the blog. Last year they were an exciting team offensively. They return playmakers, and WKU is a 9 win team, 10 if they beat Indiana on the road. Keep an eye on the QB Doughty. 4,000+ yards and 40 TDS.
Bowling Green Over 5.5 (-155) The Falcons will win 1 game in September. But after that conference play should be kind to them. Skill positions return, the real starting QB is back, and worst case Knapke is a serviceable backup as long as he isn’t hung over from a long night of wine coolers.
South Carolina Under 7 (-145) New QB in South Carolina, a defense that is below average at best, and a coach that cares less than my wife does about College Football. The schedule isn’t easy and they could lose 7 games in 8 weeks after Kentucky.
Dolphins Over 8.5 (-155) Last week I talked about Tannehill, this team also has a Defense. Miami lost a few close games because of coaching last year, they struggled to put teams away. In 2015 the schedule isn’t too bad aside from the Pats and Colts, and they should have 5 wins by Halloween.
Eagles Over 9.5 (-120) The juice on this line has gone from +115 to -120 since the first Preseason game. The talk is can Bradford stay healthy, and I think in this offense he can. A week talking about read option vs shotgun hand off has been brutal, but the Eagles could very well be an 11 win team.
Redskins Under 6 (+130) what a mess this team is. They can’t get out of their own way and it starts at the top (Miss you Big Red). QB issues, Defense issues, and DeSean is either going to be hurt or pretending to be hurt by week 8. This team might not win 7 games in the SEC. Just kidding that’s a bullshit statement when people wonder if an Ohio State could beat a Jacksonville. NO!
These lines can fluctuate depending on a number of factors from week to week. Keep an eye out for injuries and suspensions in the NFL. Prepare to make a Redskins game in November actually be meaningful. Tweet or comment your thoughts. The season is almost here and hopefully your future is better than the one below.