The main reason I pulled TCU’s write up last week was because they are in the Top 25 and I try to avoid those teams. Stupid move in this case, but I’ll explain my logic. Like with any list, there is always room for debate. Rankings serve as the betting version of beer goggles. Rankings cloud your judgement by allowing a number to weigh more heavily than the eye test. Especially early on in the season, the polls are littered with SEC teams, and your typical powerhouse schools of the 90's. Right around now is when you start to see the Toledos and Houstons get a little recognition. The coaches and AP polls typically are close, but the only numbers you should care about are the spreads. That’s how Vegas sees the teams.
I talked about Joklahoma wanting to hammer Texas last week to climb the polls, and that I'm sure was their plan. As the great Mike Tyson once said "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face". Texas came out throwing hay-makers and Baker Mayfield wore it like Robin Givens. ESPN called it a big upset but what I (and the betting public) didn’t take in to account was why Oklahoma was Ranked #10. The Sooners were ranked high because they beat Tennessee (average team, big hype), West Virginia (average team,medium hype) and scored a lot on Tulsa (below average team). Laying 16 on the road at a Texas team that has been terrible, and it would take brass balls to bet on, the books set a trap. If you looked at OK's body of work, and dropped the big legacy name, chances are you'd take the points in that situation with Texas at home. The beer goggles made Bob Stoops look like Kate Upton.
If you need to see how highly Vegas thinks of the Top 25 look at #12 Michigan -8.5 vs #7 Michigan State. How about #19 Oklahoma on the road again -4 vs Kansas State. #13 Ole Miss laying 10.5 to Memphis. Hell, the #1 team in the country is favored at home, in primetime, against PSU by just 17. These lines should tell you something. PSU will hang around with Ohio State, KState and Memphis could blow up alot of teasers this weekend too. Bottom line DO NOT let a team's ranking affect the way you cap a game.
Bowling Green -5.5 Reversed with 1H OVER 31 - Another step towards a MAC title for the Falcons. Akron very well could put up a fight in this game and try to keep the ball away from an offense more potent than a Bill Cosby cocktail. Akron likes to run the ball and they do it well, lucky for us BGSU isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut. Points shouldn't be tough to come by here and that plays well for BGSU. Reverse these 2 and go for the 4 to 1 odds. Bowling Green 28-17 at the Half.
Memphis Team Total OVER 30 - its Paxton Lynch's week to jump into the spotlight. 2 weeks of rest, and playing at home against a team that typically walks over them like a bum asking for change. I think Memphis stays within the 10.5 points, has a shot an outright win, and tries to put up points on a secondary that leaves much to be desired. Welcome to the Super Bowl in Memphis. Lets watch the Tigers spit in the face of the SEC. Admit it, you want to see Ole Miss lose outright.
Baylor 1H -11 vs WVU & OVER 74 - Revenge. Last year Bryce Petty went into that incest ridden dump in Morgantown like he had a 9 incher and a cousin with low self esteem. Baylor couldn't get out of their own way, lost the game, and watched their playoff hopes go down the drain. Art Briles expected to win a national title last year, even after that loss. Not having a title game puts the Big 12 behind the 8 ball. The Bears will have to keep blowing teams out to stay ahead of the SEC West Runner up. Everything is bigger in Texas, including Art Briles motivation.
Miami +2.5 @ Tennessee - Miami has been underwhelming this season, and the debacle in England finally got rid of their terrible coach. Going on the road is just what this team needs. The Titans are just what this team needs. Playing for an interim coach and a new team culture, the Fins can come out and take care of business against a soft team. There is still a lot of season left, and this spot is perfect for Tannehill and the gang to get a W, lift the city of Miami's hopes with back to back wins vs Tenn & Houston at home, only to get a ramrod from Brady and Co in 3 weeks. A 2 point line for a home team just screams to money line the other side.
I've been living in New England for a little over a year, it's very nice, and I have had Deflategate shoved down my throat for 9 months, it's not very nice. The luckiest team in town this year was the early season Red Sox. The fans up here didn't realize they sucked until after the All Star break, when they had to wait for the Wells report to come out. I can't begin to tell you how every detail was dissected, you wouldn't believe me anyway. The opinion up here ,true or not , is the Colts and their substance abusing red neck owner ratted out the Pats and they want revenge. The number is 10, a ton to lay on the road but St. Tommy is going to want put up 50. They want blood up here and won't be happy with anything less. Cocky and arrogant is how this fan base presents itself just like the Pats themselves. I don't care for either but I'm not above making some money off this festering hate that is very real up here in Quahog. LAY THE 10 AND GO PATS TEAM TOTAL OVER.
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