Here are a few things to keep in mind this weekend. First is home field advantage. The MAC title game is played at neutral site, Ford Field in lovely and prosperous Detroit. Northern Illinois is about 350 miles from Detroit, Bowling Green Ohio is less than 100. I would expect a more pro Falcons crowd, but not enough to call it a true advantage. Over in CUSA the title game is a home game for WKU...big difference. Same goes for Houston in the AAC game.
Next point of consideration...a lack of parity. The division winners aren't always equal. Again to the MAC...the West actually plays a little defense, and the East scores more. SEC West compared to SEC East is night and day. For several years Mizzou won the East, and weren't even worthy of Top 25 consideration. Just in case the lines weren't an indicator to you, Conference Championships are not always the product of the 2 best teams.
Finally look for in game bets. You need to watch the flow of the game and think ahead. All of these teams will be in Bowl Games. If a team grabs a 21 point lead at the half, consider an under play. Winning the title is priority number 1 for teams involved. Sneaking into a big time bowl does wonders for the school and program. Its the junk Bowl games where they throw caution to the wind and will go for on 4th & 6.
Bowling Green 1st Half - 7. The Falcons will come out firing and playing up tempo, that we know. If they get out to lead they may take their foot off the gas for the 2nd half, or at least slow down the pace. While the Huskies can play defense, they don't have the fire power to trade blows with BGSU. Likely they will try to possess the ball but BG has stepped up a bit defensively (not including the Toledo game) I like a first half over here too, but not unless its less than 35 points. Northern Illinois is on their 3rd QB, a walk on Freshman. Hell of a spot for the kid to come into, lay the points in this one. Consider the BGSU Team Total ~ 40 points.
Southern Miss/Western Kentucky OVER 73 - Home game for the Hilltoppers and I think they will need that advantage. Southern Miss can score with WKU, they proved it all year long. By now you know the Hilltopper defense has more holes than a bordello. This game should be a touchy fest. Back and forth it should go but look for WKU to pull it out at the end. The 3 way is also worth a look. A fun game to watch for sure, tune in and see what the rest of the college football fans are missing. Don't get greedy here. The spread is 7.5, which is a deadly number in a potential shootout. Would hate to lose money on a game that end 49-45.
Arkansas State 1st Half -13.5 - It's been a dream season for the Red Wolves offensively. They can run all over Texas State and put on one last show for the home crowd. The game is a mismatch and not worth over analyzing. We have a prolific offense against a subpar defense. Ark State has shown the ability to score with anyone in the conference and will look to position themselves for what should be a fun bowl season. 28-7 @ Half sounds about right. Worth noting the Wolves won't have a reason to take their foot off the gas in this one. Do with that info what you will.
Georgia State/Georgia Southern OVER 58 - the Fun Belt making its second appearance this week. Southern is far superior to State, but there is one big difference. State is looking to become bowl eligible. The Panthers will likely go through the air for their points. That turns into touchdowns or at worst case additional possessions for a Georgia Southern team that should have no problems scoring. The game will be dismissed by the vast majority of bettors out there and that is why you have a line that will hold around 58. I like points in this game, and Southern could put up 56 on their own. If the SEC title game is the 10 at Bar, this game is the thick girl who you know is down for a little fun.
Conference Champion Predictions & in depth analysis
MAC - Bowling Green (Obviously)
CUSA - Western Kentucky (No surprise)
SEC - Alabama (I hate them)
AAC - Houston (Hesitant on this one)
MWC - Air Force (Who cares, support our service members)
PAC 12 - USC (Chip Kelly should be here)
ACC - North Carolina (Only fitting Clemson blows it)
Big 10 - Michigan State (Iowa hasn't sold me)
College Football Playoff Teams. 1) Alabama 2) Michigan State 3) Oklahoma 4) Ohio State. I realize its a crazy long shot. Especially having 2 Big 10 Teams in there that have already played. But Ohio State puts more asses in the seats than North Carolina. Clemson is going to Clemson, Stanford falls, and there is no one left but Urban and the Buckeyes to bring in the big bucks for NCAA
Bet against the Eagles.
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