Another part of getting shaved is losing by half a point. These things happen, but there are certain places they happen more frequently. It's often said that in the NFL teams win by 3 more often than any other number. The next highest % of wins come by 7. Then 4, then 10. Assuming you are familiar with the point scoring system in football, this should make sense. If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing by a hook is like showering with your mother.
Over the last month I can think of at least 4 games where a friend, an uncle, or yours truly was crushed by .5. The last few years I have tried to be much more consistent with buying a half of a point. Numbers like 3.5, 7.5, 10.5 & 14.5. These lines often don't change for a reason. You will see the juice go up, but the number will stand pat most of the time. Books will also require you to lay another $20 per $100 to buy these down a half point. On any other number its usually $10 per $100. Don't be cheap, buy the half point because 1 push is worth 5 games that you buy the half and still lose.
Western Kentucky 1st Half - 14 @ ODU - tough loss for the Hilltoppers last weekend at LSU, the game got away from them a little bit at the end but that is to be expected. Last year this matchup was my biggest money maker of the year. Tomorrow is a little different as ODU just doesn't have the offensive fire power to go shot for shot with WKU. The FCS level Defense of the Monarchs should be just what Doughty and company need to get out to a fast start and coast. As mentioned above be weary if this goes to 14.5, most books won't let you buy points on a first half bet
USC/CAL OVER 69 - quick note USC is laying 5.5..this is often a number that breaks teasers and the dog wins outright. Cal at home is what we want to see. A nice little rivalry here, big brother/little brother, and points should be easy to come by. 69 in my opinion is a little low, I had this game at 73. Cal can't stop USC, and they just have to trade punches for 3 quarters to put this one over. Defense is for the Big 10....criminal records, overrated players, and points are what the PAC 12 is best at!
Ok State @ Texas Tech 3 WAY! - Game OVER 78. OKState OVER 40, Tech OVER 38. Pretty Boy wants this game more than he wants a sorority car wash. A chance to ruin State's season at home, by putting up an absurd amount of points. Tech's season is effectively over, they are playing for a bowl game yes, but making sure the Cowboys aren't involved in the playoff discussion would taste sweet. The Red Raiders don't have the defense required to slow this game down, so this game should play out like a Wal-Mart fist fight on YouTube...sure there is a winner, but in the end they are both losers.
Idaho -6.5 @ New Mexico State - slop game, but that doesn't mean you can't make money on it. Its a below average Sun Belt team vs the worst defense in college football. The Vandals aren't a high scoring team, but they aren't too bad on the defensive side of the ball (for the Sun Belt that is). Lay the 6.5 here and trust that this game isn't worth watching. There will be more people at GameDay tomorrow night than in this stadium so don't let home field worry you.
Vikings Team Total OVER 21 - going on the road to a division rival isn't easy. But the Bears stink. Chicago has played the pass well lately but they are getting thinner by the week. AP should be able to break through that weak line and into the 2nd level on 80% of his carries. As long as he doesn't swallow dip again, you can count on a 100 yard 1 - 2 TD performance. Vikings need to use the draw play to move those linebackers and let AP break a 50 yard run.
Uncle Radar is on a much needed vacation in Thailand. He will be back next week. Tweet me your thoughts or hate mail for my Uncle. I'll be sure the ladyboys give him the message
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