Lines move because of money, not necessarily volume, on a game. As more money hammers one side, the line adjusts to attract action on the other....usually. Reverse line movement is a phenomena like the northern lights or a woman's inability to make a basic decision in a timely fashion. When the public money is all over a team -7 and the line goes to -6, that’s reverse line movement. Maybe a few sharps went heavy the other way and that adjusted the line, or the book just wants you to keep piling on that favorite because they know something you don't know.
In the case of BGSU I doubt it was RLM, but more so the betting public just loved an under because they are ignorant. Want further proof? Ask a friend who only bets NFL games what they like in a game that has a total of 79.5. Mix in 2 teams they couldn’t locate on the map, and that aren’t in the Top 25 and the assumption becomes they aren’t good enough to score. Either way BGSU game went exactly as expected and they easily covered. But in a game like that it's nice to have it needing a whole touchdown less. Same goes for the Western Kentucky line. I grabbed it at +1.5 and it went up to +3 in some places which would have been a push. Line shopping is important when it comes to placing a bet.
Keep an eye on Twitter this weekend, I’ll be putting a few other games out there. Tweet me your questions or your thanks for making shitty college football games fun.
Marshall - 7 @ Kent State / Marshall TT OVER 28 – The Thundering Herd have been a fun team to watch the last few years with Rakeem Cato. He’s gone but new QB Chase Litton showed that he can play with the big boys of Conference USA last week. The Herd can run the ball for big gains and have talent on the outside. Skill positions aren’t a problem for them, usually its defense. Well Kent State sucks. I used to be a huge fan of Dri Archer and they were a team to score and be scored upon. Now they are just a doormat. They played Minnesota tough but that won’t happen again. Marshall is coming into Ohio to put up points and get a W. Team total for Marshall of 28 is also in play for this game. Look at this as a 38-13 game and grab $200.
TCU/Texas Tech OVER 79.5 – Pretty Boy that magnificent bastard. He’s coming off a big win, he’s at home, and has a chance to ruin someone’s season. After giving up 82 points last year to TCU, the Red Raiders want this so bad they can taste it. If Kliff was a 50 year old Big 10 coach, he would try to control the ball and the clock, and limit TCU’s possessions. Kliff is 36 years old and making 3 Million a year. He is the sweetest guy. Have you ever looked into his eyes? It was like the first time I heard the Beatles….but what I am getting at is that he’s cocky. I expect Pretty Boy to try to go shot for shot with TCU like Rocky did against the Russian or if you are an Indiana Jones fan, like Marion in Raiders of the Lost Ark. Kliff loses this game 59-49 and bangs a cheerleader anyway because your life sucks compared to his. Uncle Radar's game of week also has logic that applies to this game.
USC TT OVER 33.5 – Arizona State blitzes around 75% of the time, which can spell nightmares for opposing offenses and young QB’s. Cody Kessler has more talent around him than Hugh Heffner and the kid has Smirnoff Ice in is veins. The skill positions will make it easier to work around a blitz heavy defense. Screen passes that turn into 30 yard gains, play actions that go for TD’s, and maybe even a little shovel pass here and there. Coming off last weeks loss the team needs to wake up. USC circled this game after last year and as long as P Diddy doesn’t assault a coach the Trojans should get revenge in a big way.
Pittsburgh – 1 @ St Louis – there is no place like Dome, but I just don’t think the Rams are that good. Pittsburgh is getting offensive weapons back and the Rams are a team that is headed towards a 7-9 season. Let me throw out a disclaimer though…this is 100% a trap game for Pittsburgh. Baltimore up next on Thursday night for them, they could be looking ahead and get caught flat. Mike Tomlin isn’t that coach though. Pittsburgh will come out pounding the ball and wear down the Rams.
We all have our weaknesses, Sinatra had Ava Gardner, Charlie Parker had heroin, Uncle Radar has the word UNDER. I cannot bring myself to dial 10 numbers on the phone and say UNDER , I cannot look at a computer screen and click on the UNDER box. It's the reason I lost last weeks pick. If you recall I picked a side rather than a total because I didn't think one of the teams would score enough points to make the game go over. The logical choice by my reasoning would have been to go UNDER, I of course didn't and the side I picked lost. This has been a recurring theme that I cannot correct. They say the first step in recovery of an addiction is admitting you have a problem. I've had this problem a long time and I know it, yet I'm still chasing the over dragon. Over is my seductress, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy like the times I've spent in Cambodian opium dens. The cure is way more than a 12 step program, it requires you to say or click the word UNDER and not watch the impending boredom. I once bailed La Count out of a huge hole when he had nothing left in his account and needed a lifeline. It was a meaningless late season game Bears - Tampa Bay Sunday nighter. I hammered the quarters, first half, second half, game and reverses (it was when bookmakers had balls and let you reverse on the same game ) all UNDER, It was the worst $7,200 I ever won. The horror, the horror.
UCLA/Arizona OVER 66 - This week I'm going to the Pac 12 and back to my roots with an over play on UCLA vs. Arizona. I always like this set up, where the higher ranked team is away and the home team has a lot to prove with a win. This translates to the home team pulling out all stops and leaving nothing in the playbook. Last year UCLA won 17-7 at home, but both teams lost key players on D. Zona coach Rich Rod will run the score up any time he gets the chance and Mora Jr. will be showcasing his freshman 4 star QB Josh Rosen. I would normally stay away from a Jewish QB playing in a game sandwiched between Yom Kippur and Rosh Hashanah ( see Sid Luckman ), but Rosen has declared himself an atheist (oy vey), one of the biggest pieces of news on the UCLA campus since Moses wore short pants. Second year Zona starting QB Anu Solaman is Hawaiian.
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