If you watch ESPN and the like its very possible you were swayed by information like how many times Tom Brady has lost back to back games, or the effectiveness of New England's linebackers with QB's not under center etc. The talking heads preach on and on about favorites because its more interesting than a 4-7 team. They overreact to win streaks (and losing streaks), trends, blowout wins & losses, and even injuries. This is what happens in a 24 hour sports news cycle. If you watch too much tv you are bound to be skewed.
By looking at contrarian picks you are often going to be getting more points than you should, even if its just a half point. There can be great value in betting against the public. Early in the season we discussed reverse line movement. I know only 2 people that had the Eagles last weekend, and it took balls to make that bet. Every site I looked at had over 85% of the money on that game riding with the Pats, yet the line dropped 1.5 points.
The last few weeks I've had an epiphany of sorts. I've bet games under, and not checked a score until about an hour before the next games kick off. I've taken the points with bottom feeding teams, against the powerhouse teams. Last week the Saints & Eagles were good plays that were very hard to make. Betting against the public isn't a flawless system, but my bookies SL 600 wasn't paid for with the public's winnings.
Colts/Jaguars UNDER 45 - it's safe to say the Jags will be everyone sexy pick this week. The Colts looked awful on Sunday night, totally inept on offense. Playing on the road again with Matt Hasselbeck is a recipe for disaster offensively speaking. I actually like the Colts in this spot but I can't fully trust my money with Hasselbeck under center. Instead I'm going under. A sloppy game, worthy of a Thursday night penalty fest that we are used to seeing. Indy will likely just run run run and melt time off the clock. Pagano and company need the win to keep atop the division, and they will do that by controlling the clock and ball, This game stinks of a 17-13 final.
Packers -7 vs Cowboys - sooner or later the Pack has to get things going. Matt Cassel sucks and Lambeau is the place he should struggle more than any other. I feel like I have done this write up a half of a dozen times on Green Bay this year but a December home game for Green Bay should be a winner. Aaron Rodgers will drive the final nail into the coffin that has been the 2015 Dallas Cowboys. I look forward to seeing a miserable Jerry and confused Jason Garrett.
Keep an eye on it!
Seattle/Baltimore is a game to keep an eye on. If Jimmy Clausen starts this game, you need to bet against the Ravens. This kid wasn't even good in College and doesn't have the make up of a pro QB. Normally I'd hate to lay 9.5 with a road west coast team playing east at 1 pm. But if it Clausen under center, thats out the window. I'll tweet out a pick closer to game time. Look at team totals here, 1st half, etc. Matt Schaub isn't great but he's miles ahead of Jimmy. As someone who relishes in watching Notre Dame players fail, I am praying he gets the start. Prop bets are good here too. Over in sacks for the game is what I would suggest.
Son of Jerrell
When Cam Newton was a senior at Auburn I was very excited at the prospect of his pro career. I could not wait to bet against him. Everyone saw a 6"4 240 lbs. athletic game changing QB. What I saw was a very inaccurate passer who ran the same 4 plays in college.Cam and I have had an up and down relationship sometimes I bet against him and he plays like the son of Jerrell and I lose and sometimes he plays like I anticipated and I win, he's been mostly a non factor in my weekly plays. Until recently. Recently he has been incredible. Every throw is right on the money, every decision on point, he's figured it out. Like him or not he's playing at a very high level lately. I don't care about his dancing or any of that crap as long as I cash with him.Take Carolina Team Total over 27.
As Johnny V once said to me, "in a close game always take the better QB". I'm riding another hot QB in Big Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is an elite QB yet no one knows it. He makes every throw, is as tough as they come, and is a great leader. Plus he's won the Super Bowl twice. The Steelers and Ben are finally somewhat healthy and need this game badly. The Steeler offense is running the ball very effectively and that opens up the passing game. Combine that with the fact that he has more fast receivers than Ina Garten has gay male friends and I'm thinking upset. I'm talking Pitt and buying it up from 2.5 to 3.
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