At some point as a football fan you have heard a variance of the phrase "you're never as good as you look when you win, and never as bad as you look when you lose" Bettors are very reactionary...a team blows out someone and we all expect them to do it again next week. Same goes for a loss, when a good team loses a game in bad fashion...well they must be cooked right? I get caught up in that mindset too. USC got beat by Notre Dame last week, the whole word knows their internal drama, and for the record that 30 for 30 was pretty weak. Not everything has to be so damn dramatic. Reggie Bush is an asshole, Matt Leinart's still trying to wash the scent of most of Southern California's women off of him, and Pete Carroll is constantly surrounded by top tier talent..and still messes it up.
Several overreaction lines out there this week, but they take stones to bet. I won't be picking all of those because I think there are easier games, but the sharps tend to clean up on games like USC -3.5. Kansas State is another team that got blown out that betters will overreact to this week. One more example is Ole Miss, laying 6 at home off a loss to Memphis against a higher ranked A&M squad. These aren't games I am playing but ones to keep an eye on as the public will likely be hammering one side because of what happened 7 days ago.
Clemson/Miami OVER 55 - I LOVE that Miami is at home here. We have all heard about Clemsoning. Uncle Radar and I have been discussing this phenomenon for about 5 years. Dabo Swinney seems like he has his team focused and a plan in place to prevent that type of let down. As Mike Tyson once said....Everyone has a plan, until Clemson shits the bed during an ACC title run. This game should be a track meet. The U's athletes would love to play spoiler, but that's hard to do when you can't stop anyone. Clemson very well may shoot themselves in the foot early, but Al Golden won't be kicking FG's in this one, rather he wants to put them away. This contest should go up and down the field all day with either the U or Clemson have a soul crushing loss in the final minute. If you have brass balls, grab Miami Moneyline too.
Louisiana Tech -7 vs Middle Tennessee State - Kenneth Dixon is playing on Saturday and that is all I need to hear to lay 7 with the better team at Home. MTSU gave up 58 on the road at our Hilltoppers (which could have been 70+ if they kept pushing) and 34 at home vs a bottom feeding FIU team. Tech has been sputtering along at 4-3 but have faced much tougher competition. Coming off a game @ Miss State in which they were tied with 1:00 min left in the 1st half, they should respond well being back home and with their workhorse back. Team total could also be in play here.
Kansas/Oklahoma State OVER 59 - Kansas played their little hearts out against Pretty Boy last week at home. Kliff is good for 2 of those types of games per year. Back to reality and against a team that is trending upwards. Oklahoma State is 5 steps above where the Jayhawks are talent wise and is coming off a bye week. Normally I'd worry about rust here, but not with the Cowboys rolling towards the top of the Big 12. They have been putting up mid 30's against better competition. Okie state drops 45+ in this spot and the Jayhawks get a few easy ones.
Western Kentucky 1H +8.5 @ LSU - Those drunken backwoods banjo playing rejects in LSU have no idea what is coming to town. They can talk all they want about how they are preparing like its any other week, but for an SEC powerhouse this feels like a bye week. No one expects the Hilltoppers to compete in this game...except themselves. LSU has Bama next and very well could be looking ahead. I love WKU rolling into Tiger Stadium like Hurricane Katrina. At half time I expect to see Kayne West proclaim "Brandon Doughty doesn't like Creole people".
Buffalo -4 vs Jacksonville - back across the pond we go. This is also an over spot but the reason I like Buffalo is easy. They got bad news this week....Tyrod Taylor isn't playing again. Cue all the people running to bet Jacksonville. Typical overreaction by the public to bad news. I also read the Bills arrived in Foggy Londontown on Monday, the Jags are there today. If you went to private school you probably learned about Circadian Rhythms. 4 extra days in London makes a huge difference to getting adjusted. Its the same theory of a west coast team playing east at 1pm...increased by 40%. Reactions are slower, focusing is harder, and timing is going to be thrown off. Great spot to buy low on bad news with Tyrod and take into account the travel.
It's your worst nightmare, you don't want it to happen, your right now thinking up reasons why it won't happen, but deep in your heart you know it's going to happen: The Mets are going to win the World Series. Your not going to watch, your going to lie to yourself and say you don't care, but you know you hate the Mets and the Mets winning the Series. So you may as well man up, face reality and bet the Mets. Series, game, money line what ever you want, take the sting out of it and make some money with it. Better get used to it because sad to say they're going to be good for the next 3-5 years. Unless they turn into the Mets and fuck it up!
CRY ME A RIVER
It's that time of year when college snake oil salesmen start politicking for their team to get into that money grab the NCAA calls a playoff. Urban Meyer comes to mind, but there is none better than the "Little Diva" Nick Saban. Guy's like Gary Patterson of TCU who keep quiet and let his teams do the talking get screwed because Urban and little Nicky fuss, pout, and cry until their team gets into the 4 team sham. Last year TCU lost one game , an epic 61-58 thriller to a great Baylor team and didn't get in because Meyer and Saban cried like a kid threatening to take his ball home if he didn't get his way. All of this is not lost on Saban, and he knows he's got to win and win big to get into the "Little Dance". Truth be told I couldn't name one player on the Vols , but this is a great spot for Bama to make a statement. Lay the 15.5 watch the red necks run wild. Tide 45-17.
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